The first Test against the Springboks gives Dave Rennie a major selection puzzle to solve, with injuries threatening to force a reshuffle in the All Blacks backline. Our All Blacks predicted team v Springboks is built on the reported outlook around Damian McKenzie, Will Jordan, Cam Roigard and the options available to New Zealand’s head coach.
Rennie has used the three previous tour matches to assess his squad and test combinations. That experimentation now meets the pressure of a much-anticipated opener in Johannesburg this weekend.
All Blacks predicted team v Springboks: the key backline call
According to the report, McKenzie is the least certain of the three injured players mentioned. If he is unavailable, Jordan is expected to move back to full-back, creating room on the right wing.
Beauden Barrett is the reported like-for-like option at full-back. He played at 15 against the Bulls and also impressed during the Nations Championship, making him a strong candidate for a return to the Test side.
Jordan offers a different profile. He is not described as an out-and-out playmaker, but his passing game and rugby understanding make the full-back switch a credible option rather than a simple injury replacement.
If McKenzie is fit, Jordan is expected to remain on the wing. If Jordan moves to full-back, Carter is the reported favourite for the right-wing role. Fehi Fineanganofo impressed in difficult conditions against the Sharks, but Carter has stood out across the other two tour matches and has more Test-level experience in the number 14 shirt.
“There is quite simply no doubt that he starts for New Zealand if fit.”
That assessment concerns Cam Roigard. A slight injury cloud remains over the scrum-half, who has not played since the July Tests, but the report still expects him to start if available.
Selection decisions outside the backline
Billy Proctor has been ruled out through injury. The report also says Anton Lienert-Brown and Rieko Ioane are not currently being considered as starters.
Richie Mo’unga is not expected to be considered for the opener. That is presented as part of the reported selection picture, rather than an official team announcement.
At loose forward, Ardie Savea is expected to start despite not featuring in any of the three tour matches. He only arrived in South Africa the previous week, but the report describes him as another likely selection. Rennie is also expected to retain Ethan Jacobson for the first Test.
The reported bench includes Asafo Aumua, Xavier Numia, Tyrel Lomax, Anton Segner, Peter Lakai, Cortez Ratima, Anton Lienert-Brown and Beauden Barrett.
Reported selection calls compared
| Selection issue | Reported outlook | Main factor |
|---|---|---|
| Damian McKenzie | Least certain of the injured trio | Injury concern |
| Will Jordan | Full-back if McKenzie is unavailable | Passing game and rugby understanding |
| Beauden Barrett | Possible return at full-back | Like-for-like option after playing at 15 |
| Cam Roigard | Expected to start if fit | Injury cloud, but strong selection expectation |
| Ardie Savea | Expected to start | No tour-match appearance, but described as a likely pick |
Strengths
- Barrett is a credible full-back replacement after impressing in the Nations Championship.
- Jordan brings a strong passing game and tactical understanding to the position.
- Carter has been a standout across two tour matches and is considered reliable under the high ball.
- Savea remains a reported first-choice selection despite arriving late in South Africa.
Weaknesses
- McKenzie’s availability is the biggest uncertainty shaping the backline.
- Roigard has not played since the July Tests and still carries an injury concern.
- Proctor is unavailable through injury.
- The predicted side remains dependent on reported selection calls rather than an official announcement.
For further All Blacks selection context, see All Blacks ready to introduce four debutants for opening test against France due to injury challenges and All Blacks XV team named for clash with Barbarians.
Verdict
The reported selection picture points to an All Blacks backline built around contingency planning, with McKenzie’s fitness determining whether Jordan returns to full-back and Barrett comes into the side. Carter’s form gives Rennie a clear wing option, while Roigard and Savea remain expected starters if available. Against the Springboks, that blend of experience and recent tour form could be central to New Zealand’s opening selection.
