Opening weekend has traditionally been a weak point for Scotland in the Six Nations. In the last 18 tournaments, Scotland have won two opening games, one in 2006, and most recently in 2017. Last year Scotland travelled to Cardiff on opening weekend and were comprehensively beaten. Two tries from Leigh Halfpenny led to a 34 – 7 win for the Welsh against an optimistic Scotland. The Scots were flying high after an impressive Autumn, coming within inches of a win against New Zealand but were humbled by an impressive Wales. There is a similar level of optimism this year but Scotland have had their troubles with the Italians in the past.
Last year Scotland travelled to Rome, with most expecting a win but were given quite the scare. Tommy Allan put on a clinic at fly-half, and Jake Polledri burst through the Scottish defensive line at will, but the fairytale was put to bed by the ever-reliable Greig Laidlaw, who kicked a penalty to save the day and make it 27-29 in favour of the visitors.
In fact, Italy’s last win in the championship came in Edinburgh four years ago. Scotland failing to turn up led to the visitors taking a three point victory. Scotland in Murrayfield has now become a fearsome prospect; Scotland have not lost a game in Murrayfield in the Six Nations since a 9-15 loss to England in 2016.
Scotland are much stronger these days, and injuries are no longer the cause for concern they once were. Sean Maitland misses out this weekend through injury, as does Jonny Gray, but Blair Kinghorn and Grant Gilchrist have come in in place. Notably Glasgow centre Sam Johnson has been handed a debut, after missing out on a Test appearance through injury in the autumn. Scotland also have two debutants on the bench. Leicester hooker Jake Kerr will be in line to make his debut, as will Newcastle Falcons’ Gary Graham, who has returned from his reconnaissance mission with the England squad this time last year.
Italy have two big names missing from their squad, Full-back Matteo Minozzi will not be dazzling us with his dancing feet this year, as he has not recovered from an ACL injury. Gloucester’s Jake Polledri will not bash from the back row this year, he also misses out through injury.
Sergio Parisse is in line to break the record for Six Nations appearances, going one ahead of Brian O’Driscoll. There will be a lot of eyes on Parisse this weekend. A less than stellar display in last years tournament led to calls for him to be dropped. Italy are not the one-man-team they used to be, and, whisper it, but may be better off without the man who led them so well in previous years. A certain line from The Dark Knight comes to mind “You either die a hero, or live long enough to see yourself become the villain. Regardless of nationality, everyone watching will hope that Parisse is back to his best, in what will probably be his last Six Nations.
The Scotland hype train has left the station; a win at the Murrayfield fortress this weekend is likely for Toonie’s men, but they will need to have their wits about them, Conor O’Shea has been doing great work and will be improved since last year.
Prediction; Scotland by 10
Scotland: Stuart Hogg, Tommy Seymour, Huw Jones, Sam Johnson, Blair Kinghorn , Finn Russell, Greig Laidlaw ; Allan Dell, Stuart McInally, Willem Nel, Ben Toolis, Grant Gilchrist, Sam Skinner, Jamie Ritchie, Ryan Wilson .
Replacements: Jake Kerr, Jamie Bhatti, Simon Berghan, Gary Graham, Josh Strauss, Ali Price, Adam Hastings, Chris Harris
Italy: Jayden Hayward, Angelo Esposito, Luca Morisi, Tommaso Castello, Michele Campagnaro, Tommaso Allan, Tito Tebaldi; Andrea Lovotti, Leonardo Ghiraldini, Simone Ferrari, David Sisi, Dean Budd, Sebastian Negri, Braam Steyn, Sergio Parisse (capt).
Replacements: Luca Bigi, Cherif Traore, Tiziano Pasquali, Federico Ruzza, Jimmy Tuivaiti, Guglielmo Palazzani, Ian McKinley, Edoardo Padovani.
