When the curtain fell on the Six Nations back in March, it did so amid the roars of a new coronation. France has threatened a breakout for several years now, but they were denied their place atop European rugby’s throne in back-to-back years by Ireland. In 2025, Les Bleus could be denied no longer.
Led by the sniper rifle-like boot of Thomas Ramos, as well as the playmaking skills of scrum half Antoine Dupont, the French managed to hold their nerve to claim the title for the first time since 2022. They headed into a Super Saturday decider needing to beat Scotland at home to be crowned champions, and ultimately, they were up to the task.
Now, with 2026 on the horizon and winter’s chill breathing down necks, the stage is reset. Can France defend their crown, or does a bold new force lie in wait? Three months out, let’s peel back the layers and chart each nation’s journey to the biggest tournament in European rugby.
France
There’s no denying it: Les Bleus are the side everyone wants to measure themselves against. France’s 2025 campaign was poetry in motion—and equally, a siege. They scored a record 30 tries, with Louis Bielle-Biarrey rewriting history on the wing with a record of his own as he racked up eight tries. Antoine Dupont remained the master puppeteer, crafting breaks and dictating tempo, while Grégory Alldritt churned a relentless 16 carries per game.
Yet, as dominant as France appeared, their aura isn’t without cracks. Lineouts faltered—an 81% success rate against Ireland saw the pressure mount in crucial moments. Romain Ntamack, hailed for his vision, still looks to shake off the last vestiges of rust after injury. But what every rival fears is depth: U20 star Posolo Tuilagi bulldozes into the squad, and three home games at Stade de France, including the February 5th opener under floodlights against Ireland, provide the setting for another iconic run.
Online betting sites make Fabien Galthié the favorite once more, with some outlets pricing them as short as 1/2. For those looking to navigate these odds, an expected value calculator betting tool becomes an essential ally. This calculator allows bettors to break down the implied probabilities behind the numbers—France’s 1/2 odds suggest a 66.7% chance of success—and compare them to their own analysis.
Are Les Bleus truly that dominant, or do their lineout struggles and Ntamack’s lingering rust create opportunities for an upset? We will find all of that out and more in the new year.
England
England returned to prominence last time around, finishing second behind the aforementioned Les Bleus and taking their championship hopes into the final weekend. A thrilling last-gasp victory against France at Twickenham in week two rubber-stamped their championship-winning credentials, but ultimately, an opening day defeat away against then-reigning champions Ireland was too much to overcome.
But let’s not sugarcoat England’s issues: the Irish game exposed vulnerabilities on the fringes, with defensive organization evaporating at key moments. New blood brims with promise: Chandler Cunningham-South brings back-row dynamism, while Henry Slade’s return from Lions duty injects calm authority out wide. England’s opening schedule—home dates with Wales and Ireland—feels purpose-built for a Grand Slam assault, but the pressure is certainly on to deliver.
Ireland
If anyone in this competition thrives on adversity, it’s Ireland. Andy Farrell’s class of 2025 fell short of a famous three-peat, settling for third, but their campaign won admirers for searing resilience. Caelan Doris and Bundee Aki led a defensive revolution, while Dan Sheehan’s hat-trick against Italy underscored an old Irish truth: their maul is still a nightmare. The fly-half riddle persists with Jack Crowley’s 68% goal-kicking costing them in a razor-thin home defeat to France, which in turn usurped their title aspirations.
There’s intrigue beyond the veterans. Jamie Osborne, electric at full-back, accelerates Irish counterattacks, and Lions returnees James Lowe and Josh van der Flier rejoin as turbochargers. Opening with the cauldron of Paris is a test of steel, but three Dublin home games follow, and if they can win all of them, a return to the summit is possible.
Scotland
Scotland is a team forever trapped in the space between promise and frustration. 2025? So close, yet so far—fourth place, a fifth straight Calcutta Cup stolen on a three-point swing, and a campaign built on nerve and heartbreak. Gregor Townsend’s men played with both muscle and inspiration: 86% tackle completion and a tournament-best five turnovers per game from the tireless Rory Darge. The Finn Russell-Sione Tuipulotu partnership provides creativity in spades, but ill-timed handling errors and a dearth of lock experience post-Richie Gray’s retirement cost dearly.
But hope crackles: Murrayfield is a fortress, and with England arriving on February 14, revenge hangs heavy in the air. Younger Tuipulotu—Mosese—promises fireworks, Huw Jones is back in hat-trick form, and Glasgow/Edinburgh stars carry momentum from strong URC campaigns. Scotland owns the rawness and unpredictability to stun anyone, but a maiden Six Nations crown still seems painfully out of reach.
Italy
Italy—often dismissed, now rising—brings a rare swagger into 2026. Back-to-back fifth-place finishes seem like a coronation for Quesada’s new era, especially after so many years spent with a wooden spoon in hand. Paolo Garbisi evolved into a torpedo boot (87% kicking), Ange Capuozzo became appointment viewing on the counter, and Tommaso Menoncello in midfield bulldozed his way to three tries.
Still, discipline at the set piece remains an issue and can flip tight games in a heartbeat. If the Azzurri can minimize the unforced errors, they could well become a problem for the big boys.
Wales
What to say about Wales, a nation steeped in rugby mystique, now grappling with its bleakest chapter in decades? Zero wins, the wooden spoon returned for a second straight year, and a leadership vacuum off the pitch has left fans fearing a lost generation. Defensive records are a wound—three games conceding 30 or more. Interim boss Robin McBryan and performance architect Dave Reddin wield the scalpel, but a new head coach remains a mirage.
There is, at least, resilience. Taulupe Faletau’s guile endures, Tommy Reffell’s 78 tackles pace the championship, and if Louis Rees-Zammit’s NFL adventure translates to fresh wings in Cardiff, spark and hope will return. The opening trip to England is a trial by fire. But with three matches at the Principality, a new dawn isn’t impossible.
